Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 4.012554 4.708367 5.478336 6.392069 7.445297 8.619663 10.026740
2025-09-14 2.881532 3.797958 4.922714 6.397809 8.273767 10.571550 13.590103
2025-09-21 2.187370 3.181282 4.511916 6.407575 9.019697 12.470299 17.347144
2025-09-28 1.726406 2.734578 4.189075 6.412228 9.689048 14.297916 21.215190
2025-10-05 1.541874 2.625448 4.290212 6.988357 11.192423 17.416283 27.223392
2025-10-12 1.325215 2.413325 4.184984 7.214615 12.179094 19.875361 32.541622
2025-10-19 1.155253 2.238139 4.097578 7.436160 13.161079 22.409897 38.231476
2025-10-26 0.988872 2.032856 3.918641 7.464297 13.809143 24.461357 43.348970
2025-11-02 0.819787 1.786839 3.622683 7.233067 13.965857 25.695140 47.218086
2025-11-09 0.668183 1.543054 3.286988 6.870265 13.824965 26.379879 50.187107
2025-11-16 0.569770 1.388415 3.095601 6.747456 14.098541 27.804635 54.577234
2025-11-23 0.492562 1.263796 2.942933 6.674674 14.449542 29.391857 59.399369
2025-11-30 0.451431 1.216018 2.949410 6.941610 15.529087 32.501689 67.466564
2025-12-07 0.398014 1.127982 2.853896 6.978002 16.145039 34.788964 74.206690
2025-12-14 0.351130 1.046128 2.758380 6.999274 16.730225 37.074456 81.172332
2025-12-21 0.310134 0.970506 2.664225 7.008097 17.286338 39.352872 88.340766
2025-12-28 0.305849 0.995361 2.821232 7.634936 19.303591 44.881869 102.735751
2026-01-04 0.282850 0.961405 2.822769 7.881023 20.471206 48.702654 113.866415
2026-01-11 0.261886 0.928843 2.822391 8.121630 21.653049 52.664561 125.652157
2026-01-18 0.235038 0.871725 2.745480 8.152229 22.328542 55.558123 135.348089
2026-01-25 0.201943 0.786095 2.573086 7.901320 22.271873 56.772496 141.390098
2026-02-01 0.169232 0.693012 2.361278 7.507517 21.797573 56.958948 145.090765
2026-02-08 0.148344 0.636181 2.247830 7.374186 21.986186 58.738720 152.659150